Post by HardTimeTrucker on Oct 8, 2008 16:44:42 GMT -5
US Box Slump Continues
October 8, 2008
By Bill Mongelluzzo
THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE
LONG BEACH, Calif. -- The slump in containerized imports is expected to continue for at least the next six months, according to the October Port Tracker published by the National Retail Federation and the economic forecasting firm Global Insight.
Port Tracker limits its forecasts of container traffic at major North American ports to six months out, so it is possible that the malaise could continue beyond February.
The peak-shipping season, which normally runs from late summer into November, can hardly be called a peak this year. Although containerized imports have crept up compared to the previous month, they are off compared to the same months in 2007.
Port Tracker forecasts a similar pattern at least through February. August traffic, the last monthly count based on actual data, was down 5.9 percent from August 2007. Port Tracker projects a drop of 9.2 percent in September compared to September 2007. It projects declines of 4.3 percent in October, 6.9 percent in November, 2.1 percent in December, 1.6 percent in January 2009 and 5.9 percent in February.
“This has clearly been a difficult year and we still have a challenging holiday season ahead of us,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
The silver lining in this otherwise dismal report is that lower cargo volumes mean less congestion at seaports and fewer capacity constraints in the intermodal rail and trucking sectors.
Port Tracker ranks all ports except Los Angeles-Long Beach as “low” for congestion over the next six months. The Southern California port complex is rated “medium” for congestion due to uncertainties surrounding the ports’ clean-trucks program that took effect on Oct. 1.
Los Angeles-Long Beach experienced no congestion in the first week since pre-1989 trucks were banned and motor carriers were required to obtain an operating license from the ports. The concession requirements, however, are still under litigation and collection of fees associated with the plans is expected to begin by the end of October when an electronic system to manage the program is launched.
The nation’s railroads weathered delays caused by recent hurricanes, and intermodal rail service is adequate, Port Tracker stated. Diesel fuel prices have dropped, and trucking capacity is sufficient and should remain adequate because of delays in implementation of the federal Transportation Worker Identification Credential program.