Post by porttalk on Nov 10, 2008 13:03:47 GMT -5
The JOURNAL of COMMERCE
Lowest Peak Container Traffic for US in Four Years
November 10, 2008
Cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports fell again in October, and 2008 is now expected to be the slowest year for box traffic since 2004, according to the latest Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and consultant IHS Global Insight.
Volume is projected to total 15.3 million TEUs for the year, compared with 16.5 million TEUs in 2007, off 7.1 percent and the lowest total since 2004, when 14 million TEUs moved through the ports. The survey blamed the continuing downturn in the U.S. economy.
The estimate is down from the survey's estimate of 15.43 million TEUs in October.
“Retail sales forecasts this year are the lowest they’ve been in more than half a decade, and the cargo volume we’re seeing reflects those numbers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The balancing act between supply and demand is tougher than ever because retailers want to make sure they have enough merchandise on the shelves to satisfy customers and not be forced into unplanned markdowns to move excess inventory once the holidays are over.”
Surveyed U.S. ports handled 1.33 million TEUs in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 2.9 percent from August and 9.8 percent from September 2007. October was estimated at 1.36 million TEUs, down 5.7 percent from a year ago. That would make October the peak month for 2008 but significantly short of the 2007 peak of 1.48 million TEU in September, 2007.
November is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, down 8.7 percent, and December is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 5.5 percent. January 2009 is forecast at 1.17 million TEU, down 5 percent, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.12 million TEU, down 8.3 percent.
The first year-over-year increase in months is expected in March, at 1.18 million TEU, a 2.3 percent increase from March, 2008.
Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continues at medium because collection of fees for the new Clean Truck Program there begins this month.
“The October startup of the Clean Truck Program regulations did not cause the disruptions we had been concerned about, but collection of fees for the program begins this month and it is not clear that all trucks will be ready,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Despite that, weak import demand has reduced pressure for port truck drivers, so capacity should be adequate.”
The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker -- Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast -- are rated “low” for congestion, the same as October.
Lowest Peak Container Traffic for US in Four Years
November 10, 2008
Cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports fell again in October, and 2008 is now expected to be the slowest year for box traffic since 2004, according to the latest Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and consultant IHS Global Insight.
Volume is projected to total 15.3 million TEUs for the year, compared with 16.5 million TEUs in 2007, off 7.1 percent and the lowest total since 2004, when 14 million TEUs moved through the ports. The survey blamed the continuing downturn in the U.S. economy.
The estimate is down from the survey's estimate of 15.43 million TEUs in October.
“Retail sales forecasts this year are the lowest they’ve been in more than half a decade, and the cargo volume we’re seeing reflects those numbers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The balancing act between supply and demand is tougher than ever because retailers want to make sure they have enough merchandise on the shelves to satisfy customers and not be forced into unplanned markdowns to move excess inventory once the holidays are over.”
Surveyed U.S. ports handled 1.33 million TEUs in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 2.9 percent from August and 9.8 percent from September 2007. October was estimated at 1.36 million TEUs, down 5.7 percent from a year ago. That would make October the peak month for 2008 but significantly short of the 2007 peak of 1.48 million TEU in September, 2007.
November is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, down 8.7 percent, and December is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 5.5 percent. January 2009 is forecast at 1.17 million TEU, down 5 percent, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.12 million TEU, down 8.3 percent.
The first year-over-year increase in months is expected in March, at 1.18 million TEU, a 2.3 percent increase from March, 2008.
Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continues at medium because collection of fees for the new Clean Truck Program there begins this month.
“The October startup of the Clean Truck Program regulations did not cause the disruptions we had been concerned about, but collection of fees for the program begins this month and it is not clear that all trucks will be ready,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Despite that, weak import demand has reduced pressure for port truck drivers, so capacity should be adequate.”
The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker -- Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast -- are rated “low” for congestion, the same as October.