Post by HardTimeTrucker on Feb 8, 2010 21:28:19 GMT -5
Imports to Grow 25 Percent at U.S. Ports
Bill Mongelluzzo
Feb 8, 2010
The Journal of Commerce
First half to see major recovery, Port Tracker analyst says
Import cargo at the top North American container ports will grow 25 percent in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period last year, demonstrating that a sustained trade recovery is under way, according to the Global Port Tracker.
The monthly publication by Ben Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation disputes the theory of some economists that the current upturn in economic activity will be followed by another dip.
"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Hackett said.
A jump in the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, strong growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2009 and higher-than-expected growth in consumer spending indicate that the American consumer is returning to the stores.
As consumers spend more, retailers feel confident in increasing their orders with overseas factories, and this bodes well for import traffic at the nation's container ports. "Retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year," said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and Customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
The Global Port Tracker reported that in December containerized imports at the largest ports in North America increased 2.6 percent compared to December 2008. This was the first time in 28 months that container volume increased compared to the same month the previous year.
Even more robust growth is projected in the coming months. When January's numbers are confirmed, they are estimated to show a 17 percent increase over January 2009. February is projected to show a 30 percent increase over the same month last year.
In fact, retailers and other importers the past several weeks reported that demand for vessel space in Asia was so strong that some of their shipments missed the intended voyages and were "rolled" to subsequent voyages.
Global Port Tracker projects that containerized imports in March will be 23 percent higher than in March 2009. April will be up 27 percent and May, 26 percent, the publication estimated.
If these projections hold true, container volume in the first half of 2010 will be 25 percent higher than during the same period last year, Hackett said.
Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bmongelluzzo@joc.com.
Bill Mongelluzzo
Feb 8, 2010
The Journal of Commerce
First half to see major recovery, Port Tracker analyst says
Import cargo at the top North American container ports will grow 25 percent in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period last year, demonstrating that a sustained trade recovery is under way, according to the Global Port Tracker.
The monthly publication by Ben Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation disputes the theory of some economists that the current upturn in economic activity will be followed by another dip.
"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Hackett said.
A jump in the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, strong growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2009 and higher-than-expected growth in consumer spending indicate that the American consumer is returning to the stores.
As consumers spend more, retailers feel confident in increasing their orders with overseas factories, and this bodes well for import traffic at the nation's container ports. "Retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year," said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and Customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
The Global Port Tracker reported that in December containerized imports at the largest ports in North America increased 2.6 percent compared to December 2008. This was the first time in 28 months that container volume increased compared to the same month the previous year.
Even more robust growth is projected in the coming months. When January's numbers are confirmed, they are estimated to show a 17 percent increase over January 2009. February is projected to show a 30 percent increase over the same month last year.
In fact, retailers and other importers the past several weeks reported that demand for vessel space in Asia was so strong that some of their shipments missed the intended voyages and were "rolled" to subsequent voyages.
Global Port Tracker projects that containerized imports in March will be 23 percent higher than in March 2009. April will be up 27 percent and May, 26 percent, the publication estimated.
If these projections hold true, container volume in the first half of 2010 will be 25 percent higher than during the same period last year, Hackett said.
Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bmongelluzzo@joc.com.